Today's figures are released. My projection did remarkably well, predicting 2926 deaths (total) for today. The actual number is 2921.
To those people who STILL doubt that we are following the Italy curve, I say: look at the figures.
I see no way off this curve for at least a week. We will pass 10,000 deaths within the next week, and possibly as soon as 5 days' time.


We're still tracking ahead of Italy (+14 days) on daily number of deaths (first derivative) AND daily increase in deaths (second derivative). And even the third derivative (increase in increase in deaths) is still in dodgy territory. That, to a statistician, is very worrying.

Sign in to participate in the conversation
Tŵt Cymru | Toot Wales

The independent social network for Wales, the Welsh, and everyone else! | Y rhwydwaith gymdeithasol annibynnol i Gymru. Tŵt is the social media network that puts YOU in charge. No data mining, no silly ads. Your Wales, your voice, join today! Tŵt yw’r rhwydwaith gymdeithasol sy’n rhoi rheolaeth i TI. Dim cloddio data, dim hysbysebion twp. Dy Gymru, dy lais, ymuna heddiw!