The #Covid19Cymru figures for deaths today are very encouraging indeed. They show only 12 deaths; the lowest since 31st March, and the lowest one I think we could describe as (even vaguely) reliable since 29th March.
This suggests that yesterday's 13 was a blip, and that we really might be approaching (or even past) the peak. However, 2 days is not sufficient for confidence. For that we will need another day or two of lower figures.
Today's total #Covid19Cymru deaths - 166 - is therefore significantly below what the projection had suggested.
The projection assumes the average rate of increase over the past three days will continue, and in earlier stages this is a reasonable assumption. At roughly 18 days (mean time infection-death) after people started taking measures (lockdown, social distancing, home working) the number will deviate from that curve.
CORRECTION: "yesterday's 13 was NOT a blip"
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