We've now seen the %age increase in deaths falling for four consecutive days (31.5%, 24.2%, 23.4%, 19.6%, 14.4%), and so this is looking like a trend. It suggests that we really might be approaching the peak. However, it does not suggest necessarily that we have peaked in deaths per day just yet. 2/4
At roughly 18 days (mean time infection-death) after people started taking measures (lockdown, social distancing, home working) the number will deviate from that curve. But we're only on our way to winning when the curve changes direction. In the UK figures, it's too early to suggest that's happening. 4/4
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