The figures for deaths today are again encouraging. As yesterday, they show a reduction of the rate of increase in deaths (d²y/dx²), and indeed today they show a reduction in the actual number of deaths per day (dy/dx), at 619 (from 708 yesterday). The total deaths in the UK is now recorded as 4932. 1/4

We've now seen the %age increase in deaths falling for four consecutive days (31.5%, 24.2%, 23.4%, 19.6%, 14.4%), and so this is looking like a trend. It suggests that we really might be approaching the peak. However, it does not suggest necessarily that we have peaked in deaths per day just yet. 2/4


Today's total deaths of 4932 is therefore significantly below what yesterday's projection had suggested. The projection assumes the average rate of increase over the past three days will continue, and in earlier stages this is a reasonable assumption. 3/4

At roughly 18 days (mean time infection-death) after people started taking measures (lockdown, social distancing, home working) the number will deviate from that curve. But we're only on our way to winning when the curve changes direction. In the UK figures, it's too early to suggest that's happening. 4/4

Sign in to participate in the conversation
Tŵt Cymru | Toot Wales

The independent social network for Wales, the Welsh, and everyone else! | Y rhwydwaith gymdeithasol annibynnol i Gymru. Tŵt is the social media network that puts YOU in charge. No data mining, no silly ads. Your Wales, your voice, join today! Tŵt yw’r rhwydwaith gymdeithasol sy’n rhoi rheolaeth i TI. Dim cloddio data, dim hysbysebion twp. Dy Gymru, dy lais, ymuna heddiw!