The #Covid19UK figures for deaths today are again encouraging. As yesterday, they show a reduction of the rate of increase in deaths (d²y/dx²), and indeed today they show a reduction in the actual number of deaths per day (dy/dx), at 619 (from 708 yesterday). The total deaths in the UK is now recorded as 4932. 1/4
We've now seen the %age increase in deaths falling for four consecutive days (31.5%, 24.2%, 23.4%, 19.6%, 14.4%), and so this is looking like a trend. It suggests that we really might be approaching the peak. However, it does not suggest necessarily that we have peaked in deaths per day just yet. 2/4
At roughly 18 days (mean time infection-death) after people started taking measures (lockdown, social distancing, home working) the number will deviate from that curve. But we're only on our way to winning when the curve changes direction. In the UK figures, it's too early to suggest that's happening. 4/4
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