Today's death figures may have caused some alarm. However, I don't think it is cause for dismay. As has been observed by a number of people (and denied by others - mostly not statisticians?), we have been following Italy's curve for some time.

Italy's highest daily deaths figure of 919 occurred on 27th March, i.e. 12 days ago. We're tracking at Italy+14. The data are noisy (they go up and down); we've had a constant decrease in the % increase of deaths per day, and this is crucial

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- when averaged over 3 days to try to eliminate noise (if you like, the second differential is lowering ), for the past 6 days. This is only a very slight reversal of that (12.6% to 12.9%). At this stage in their outbreak, Italy's curve was at a similar stage.

So, whilst we could see a higher figure than 938 deaths in one day, I'm going to stick my neck out here and say I don't think we'll see a much higher daily number, and this could indeed be the highest.

I've just been told that there is a story on the BBC that we won't peak for another week and a half.
They should have been reading my analysis 🙂

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