Today's #Covid19Cymru figures show 10 deaths in the past 24 hours. After the bank holiday weekend rebound that I discussed yesterday, I had been hoping for slightly lower. We should be regularly seeing single figures now.
I'd expect single figures tomorrow (Friday, the day being reported on, being a normal day), and on the following two days (weekends generally under-report), so that's going to make trend-spotting very difficult for a while.
Yesterday, I said in response to the #Covid19Cymru death figures (then 11):
"This is however less of a correction than I expected, and so is relatively good news. We have in the past seen the rebound spread over 2 days, so watch tomorrow's figure."
And so it proved, with 14 reported today for a total of 1307.
Today's #Covid19Cymru figures show the number of deaths rebounding after the bank holiday weekend, as I expected them to - up to 11 today (total now 1293). This is however less of a correction than I expected, and so is relatively good news. We have in the past seen the rebound spread over 2 days, so watch tomorrow's figure.
The deaths per day averaged over a week is now down to 7.9. At this rate, we could be looking at our first 0 day within a fortnight or so. 1/2
The official total deaths from #Covid19Cymru in Wales is a number of some significance, and not for good reasons (1282, Llywelyn ein Llyw Olaf). Nonetheless, it represents just 8 deaths in the previous 24 hours.
But don't read too much into the past three days. It was a bank holiday weekend. There's likely to be a moderate correction over the next day or two/ However, daily averages are heading towards single figures now, so that's good news. 1/2
Today's #Covid19Cymru figures for the number of deaths over the past 24 hours look very good, but please remember that it's the weekend, and we normally see a dip in Sunday and Monday's figures. That said, the weekly running average is down to 9.1, the lowest since 28th March, so Wales' lockdown is being effective.
Today#s #Covid19Cymru figures show just 7 deaths in the previous 24 hours. The last time it was that low on a normal weekday was 31st March. So this is definitely good news, but slightly out of line with the weekly average, which would predict around 11 right now.
Today's #Covid19Cymru figures for deaths (14) are very much in line with expectations, at 14 (for a total of 1238). The average for the last 7 days is now 12, so heading the right direction - though not as fast as we would like.
Yesterday's #Covid19Cymru death figure was low due to the usual weekend late reporting. Of today's figure of 17, only around half are from the past 24 hours, the others mostly from the day before (according to https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary).
The averages are still looking very smooth, though we seem to be plateaued at around 13 deaths a day at the moment (and obviously reaching a plateau is not a good thing).
Apologies to those following my #Covid19Cymru stats posts, for the lack of posts over the weekend. It's been a strange time for the figures, with two pre-weekend figures lower than I would have expected, followed by two weekend figures that were higher than would have been expected - especially Saturday's 18. And now comes a 4; there has not been a figure lower than this since 24th March. But we should not get carried away: this clearly demonstrates the noisiness of the data, 1/2
Today's #Covid19Cymru figures continue the good news from yesterday. 9 deaths - that is the first single figure "normal" (non-weekend, no reason to suspect under-reporting) since March. I was cautious about yesterday's 10 - was it too good? Now I think we are seeing something real.
But such a message has to come with the warning: we cannot afford to let up the lockdown until test-trace-isolate is both in place, and been shown to be working.
Today there are just 10 recorded deaths for #Covid19Cymru, which supports what I said yesterday regarding the weekend correction that I expected. We should be now back to a "normal" figure. And if this is normal, it's really very good - lower than expected, but not totally out of line.
This figure is still too high to consider significant easing of restrictions, though (Welsh govt is correct here). 1/2
The #Covid19Cymru figures for today show an increase in deaths, of 22 (total now 1154). Yesterday, I suggested this might happen, as the rebound from the weekend's assumed under-reporting was not as great as I expected.
In short, trends are still going the right way, but fairly slowly.
#StayAtHome for a while yet.
The figures for #Covid19Cymru today show 16 new deaths. That's a good result, statistically, after a bank holiday weekend which showed (to me, fairly obvious) under-reporting. I had expected a bigger rebound than that. Of course, that might yet happen over the next day or two. If tomorrow's figure is not lower than today's, then that is probably why.
But at the moment, I think there is room for cautious optimism. - though most certainly not complacency.
It's difficult not to get ones hopes too high after just 5 new deaths reported today in the #Covid19Cymru figures. This is the lowest daily figure since 28th March. However, this represents Sunday's figures, and weekends have consistently seen under-reporting.
After a bank holiday weekend, expect a rebound tomorrow - possibly quite a significant one.
Today's #Covid19Cymru figures show 12 new deaths, for a total of 1111.
Whilst that's 2 lower than last Sunday, and looks good on the trend graphs, I don't think we should read too much into this yet; it's the middle figure of a bank holiday weekend.
After yesterday's higher than expected total deaths for #Covid19Cymru, today we have a lower than expected total - just 9, the lowest (I believe) since care home figures started being included. We should be careful reading too much into this though, because yesterday was technically a bank holiday. So, without further comment, here are the graphs.
Wales has seen an increase of 28 deaths today in the #Covid19Cymru death figures. That's significantly higher than the trend would suggest. It's too sudden to be solely a real artefact, but nonetheless it's a bit concerning.
I'll post below if I hear an explanation.
Today's #Covid19Cymru figures show the slowly declining trend continuing - 18 deaths in the last 24 hours, for a total of 1062.
As I mentioned before, the apparent increase in daily deaths over the week to 2nd May is, I believe, wholly attributable to the inclusion of care home data. Now that has worked through, we can see the trend of the slow decline resuming (green line in averages). 1/2
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