Day 3000, lockdown life....a beautiful moment in the garden....our friendly Collared Dove giving his lady an afternoon to remember! 😉👍 💕 😏

The Welsh government seems confident that R is around 0.8 however. And with figures as low as they currently are, statistical noise is also a factor. But if they're right, we should be seeing the back of double-figure daily deaths now. And the fact that the 7-day average has risen is a little concerning.

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Today's figures show 10 deaths in the past 24 hours. After the bank holiday weekend rebound that I discussed yesterday, I had been hoping for slightly lower. We should be regularly seeing single figures now.
I'd expect single figures tomorrow (Friday, the day being reported on, being a normal day), and on the following two days (weekends generally under-report), so that's going to make trend-spotting very difficult for a while.

@davidoclubb Oh thanks, very interesting. No I hadn't seen that. I'm going to have to have a closer look.
Today's death figures for Wales are on the edge of a concern. Analysis coming up...

I think it's fair to say then that this is completely in line with expectations, and we should not worry about the fact that the figure appears to be rising.

Because last Monday was a bank holiday, this has also shifted the weekend rebound on a day, so the weekly average appears to have risen.

Tomorrow we should see a drop in both deaths and the weekly average. If we don't, then we worry.

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Yesterday, I said in response to the death figures (then 11):

"This is however less of a correction than I expected, and so is relatively good news. We have in the past seen the rebound spread over 2 days, so watch tomorrow's figure."

And so it proved, with 14 reported today for a total of 1307.

It's important that we get that low in Wales before significant easing of restrictions, otherwise would be soon overwhelmed. And we face the additional problem of recalcitrant neighbours. The coming few weeks are crucial, as are subsequent decisions on travel restrictions. 2/2

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Today's figures show the number of deaths rebounding after the bank holiday weekend, as I expected them to - up to 11 today (total now 1293). This is however less of a correction than I expected, and so is relatively good news. We have in the past seen the rebound spread over 2 days, so watch tomorrow's figure.
The deaths per day averaged over a week is now down to 7.9. At this rate, we could be looking at our first 0 day within a fortnight or so. 1/2

@Ailgylchu_Gymru put them into the garden incinerator if you can and burn them. We did. It's safer.

Food, shopping, lockdown 

@ak Right 🙂
I am very concerned though at what's happening in England. My PhD was in bioinformatics, so I guess I think I do know what's happening, at least from the statistical point of view - though not so much the virology/epidemiology side. But I do understand the basics of that. It's difficult to work in a biology department for 8 years without some of it rubbing off!

Food, shopping, lockdown 

@ak Lockdown. We're still being sensible here. our government has not eased the lockdown so much, nor sent mixed messages. No crowds, continual decrease in hospital admissions. It's looking bad in England right now, as far as I can see.

still needed though, and must be in place before significant further relaxation. It's still out there, ready to kick off again if R goes > 1. And that would undo all our good work so far. If necessary that must mean closing the border to rogue neighbours. 2/2

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The official total deaths from in Wales is a number of some significance, and not for good reasons (1282, Llywelyn ein Llyw Olaf). Nonetheless, it represents just 8 deaths in the previous 24 hours.

But don't read too much into the past three days. It was a bank holiday weekend. There's likely to be a moderate correction over the next day or two/ However, daily averages are heading towards single figures now, so that's good news. 1/2

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