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Today's figures might sound bad - the highest number of deaths in a single day so far, at 708. But this actually represents a modest slowing of the rate of increase, and so in that respect is good news.
Total deaths now stands at 4313. A projection on the average increase over the previous 3 days had predicted 4555.
I remain optimistic that we will top out in the next week, as Italy did (UK = Italy+14 in these graphs).

Today's figures are definitely good news, with just 13 deaths in the past 24 hours - the lowest since 31st March (and that was a blip). If we're seeing the beginnings of a flattening, it is earlier than expected - I am not expecting that until next weekend (lockdown + ~18 days). I suspect this is another blip, but we won't know until we see more data.
Projection for tomorrow: 179.(same as it was for today, because of adjusted rate of increase).

As you can see from these two charts, we are now generally tracking above Italy on daily deaths and on increase in deaths (at date+14).
At this point, if someone offered me the Italian figures, I'd probably take them.

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Here are my charts for today.
Yesterday's projection forecast a total of 3726 deaths to today (up 805). The actual number was 3605 (up 684), suggesting a slight slowing.
The forecast for tomorrow, based on average increase over the past 3 days, is 4555.

Here are my charts for today.
Yesterday's projection forecast a total of 145 deaths to today (up 28). The actual number was 141 (up 24).

Gair y Dydd: tridiau(’r) aderyn du a dau lygad Ebrill geiriadur.ac.uk/gpc/gpc.html?t -- oes unrhyw un yn gyfarwydd â'r ymadrodd hwn am ddiwedd Mawrth a dechrau Ebrill?

Word of the Day: tridiau(’r) aderyn du a dau lygad Ebrill 'the last three days of March and the first two (three) days of April': geiriadur.ac.uk/gpc/gpc.html?t -- Anyone familiar with this expression? (literally 'three days of the blackbird and two eyes of April')

Italy vs UK, comparison of last 7 days with date-14 for Italy.
For each of the last three days, and four of the last six days, UK has seen a higher number of deaths than Italy did at the same stage of their outbreak.

@matt This is the daily increase in total deaths. A straight line fitted through the last 7-10 days shows a positive slope - so even the rate of increase is increasing.

We're still tracking ahead of Italy (+14 days) on daily number of deaths (first derivative) AND daily increase in deaths (second derivative). And even the third derivative (increase in increase in deaths) is still in dodgy territory. That, to a statistician, is very worrying.

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Today's figures are released. My projection did remarkably well, predicting 2926 deaths (total) for today. The actual number is 2921.
To those people who STILL doubt that we are following the Italy curve, I say: look at the figures.
I see no way off this curve for at least a week. We will pass 10,000 deaths within the next week, and possibly as soon as 5 days' time.

Here's the graphs for today.
We can see now that yesterday's figure was no accident; it appears to have been merely a realignment with the curve, after a one-day blip. Why there should have been under-reporting on 31st March I don't know.
The projection forecast 125 total deaths for today. It was actually 117 - so we're slightly under.

Our university wasn't affected by the strikes so I guess we don't have that dilemma. And the university has offered to reimburse final term accommodation fees if students don't stay, which seems very fair. I suppose there are quite a few possible approaches; I wonder if there will be a common approach adopted by universities, or if each will go their own way.

#covid19 #coronavirus #global #pandemic #medicine #politics #uk

The UK Press is beginning to ask some hard questions (across the political divide) about the UK Government's mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic on home soil. Here's just one example:

A public inquiry into the UK's coronavirus response would find a litany of failures

theguardian.com/commentisfree/

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