AngharadHafod @AngharadHafod@toot.wales

Dim yn edrych mor dda nag oedd e wythnos nôl.
Not looking as good as it was a week ago.
#Covid19Ceredigion

The latest from Tim Spector (of the Zoe app) on Omicron. Cases flattening out; possibly rising now. https://youtu.be/RvcvNRXmlrA

My qualification for answering this is my statistical background, and the fact that I've programmed an implementation of the d'Hondt method for an application I was working on, so I understand the maths behind it very well.

I was also a candidate on the Mid & West Wales list for #PlaidCymru in 2021, so I have experience from both the statistical and political sides.
/8

Summary:
- greater percentage required to achieve an AS if regions are proportional
+ most regions not truly proportional at the moment, so any difference is not so great
+ smaller regions give smaller parties a greater chance of winning at least somewhere
7/

This regional variation applies particularly to the Lib Dems, so I am quite surprised Jane Dodds has come out against it. It would be very surprising if her party didn't increase their representation to a good few seats under the current proposal.
6/

So, if for example, the Green party were to put up a popular candidate, they would have a greater chance of reaching 12% within the proposed system than they would with larger regions. Would that be enough to close the gap between old and new? I don't know, but quite possibly. As (all) parties tend to be stronger in some regions than others, I suspect this will easily compensate for the higher percentage required.
5/

So, in a best case with the current system, around 8% will get an AS, but the best case is more often than not not achieved.
In every case, in the new system, around 12% will be required. These figures are not precise, because they depend on the exact division of votes between other parties.
But - and this is a big but - when you have smaller regions, you have a greater chance of local influences affecting the result.
4/

It also means that smaller parties have to get more than 1/12 (~8%) of the region vote to get represented.
If we divide Cymru into 16 regions (double-[new-border] constituencies), which are completely elected via d'Hondt, that eliminates the possibility for over-representation, amongst the 8 members that each double-constituency will elect.
But it also means that a party (or indeed an individual) would need around 12% of the vote to be elected.
3/

(the d'Hondt method; that's where the maths comes in), but taking into account the party allegiance of the first 8. That gives a very proportional 12 from each region.
Except, there are flaws in this. The main flaw actually favours the Labour party; that is, if a party more than fills its d'Hondt quota with constituency AS's, that region will not be proportional. This usually happens in the three South Wales regions.
2/

There are some interesting suggestions in this article. Politics aside, let's have a look and see if there's any basis to the concerns.
tl;dr: yes and no; swings and roundabouts. But I think Lee Waters is right.

At present, Cymru is divided into 5 regions. We elect one AS from each region's 8 constituencies (40 across Cymru) using the traditional First-Past-The-Post method. Another 4 are elected by proportional representation

1/
https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-61429310

"Temporary breaching of 1.5C in next five years? It's a 50:50 call." - The Met Office.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/decadal-forecast-2022

"Levelling up" was never more than a slogan.
https://nation.cymru/news/wales-falling-further-behind-london-two-years-after-levelling-up-promise-analysis-shows/

I found the solution, though even typing the search query into DuckDuckGo was interesting.
Fn-W toggles the swap.
But... just why? Why would anyone EVER want to do that?

So I was randomly typing in #Ubuntu and suddenly the arrow keys and the wasd keys have become swapped around. Typing is ... interesting.

Ro'n i'n bwriadu golchi fy nillad gwely heddiw, ond ni allaf.
I was going to wash my bed clothes today, but I can't.
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#CatsOfMastodon