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Could Jeremy Corbyn hand the Senedd to Reform UK?

With just nine months until the 2026 Senedd election, political fault lines in Wales are shifting rapidly. Reform UK, led nationally by Nigel Farage, has surged in the polls and is now projected to win more seats than Labour or Plaid Cymru. But it’s not just Reform’s rise that’s redrawing the map — it’s the unexpected return of Jeremy Corbyn to frontline politics.

Corbyn, alongside Coventry South MP Zarah Sultana, has launched a new political movement aimed at challenging Labour from the left. Though the party remains unnamed, it has already attracted support from Welsh figures including former Cynon Valley MP Beth Winter and ex-PCS union leader Mark Serwotka. Their statement suggests the party will field candidates in Wales — and that could have seismic consequences.

A new voting system, a new risk

The 2026 Senedd election will be the first under Wales’ new closed list proportional representation system, with 96 Members elected across 16 larger constituencies, each returning six MSs. Voters will cast a single vote for a party, not an individual candidate. Seats will be allocated using the D’Hondt method, which favours parties with broad support across regions.

This system was designed to improve proportionality — but it also introduces new vulnerabilities. Unlike the Single Transferable Vote (STV), which allows voters to rank preferences, the closed list system offers no way to transfer votes between ideologically similar parties. That means a vote for Corbyn’s party could reduce Labour’s seat share, without boosting Plaid Cymru or other progressive parties.

If Corbyn’s party polls even 5–10%, it could cost Labour and Plaid multiple seats — handing Reform a path to power.

Reform’s rise in Llanelli, Bridgend — and beyond

Reform UK is already polling between 25–29% in Wales — ahead of Labour and Plaid Cymru in several surveys. The party has gained momentum through defections from the Conservatives, including sitting MS Laura Anne Jones, and now has 13 councillors across Wales.

Reform UK made a breakthrough in Bridgend earlier this year when 20-year-old Owain Clatworthy won a county council by-election in the Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr ward — narrowly defeating Labour by just 30 votes to claim the party’s first elected seat on Bridgend County Borough Council

In Llanelli, Reform came within 1,504 votes of unseating Labour MP Dame Nia Griffith at the 2024 general election. Gareth Beer, Reform’s candidate, finished second with over 11,000 votes — and had UKIP not stood a candidate, those votes could have tipped the seat in his favour2.

Since then, Reform has strengthened its local base. Gareth’s wife, Michelle Beer, won a Carmarthenshire County Council by-election in the Lleidi ward, defeating Labour in what had long been considered safe territory4. Gareth Beer now serves as acting chair of Reform’s Carmarthenshire branch and is widely expected to lead the party’s candidate list for the new Caerfyrddin Senedd seat.

Michelle Beer (centre) with husband Gareth Beer (right)

The unintended consequences of Corbyn’s comeback

Corbyn’s new party is rooted in a radical platform: public ownership of utilities, opposition to arms sales to Israel, and a mass redistribution of wealth. It’s a message that appeals to disillusioned Labour voters, especially younger people and those active in social movements.

But in Wales, where Plaid Cymru already occupies much of the progressive space, Corbyn’s party could split the anti-Reform vote. Some left-wing voters who might otherwise back Plaid or Labour could be drawn to Corbyn’s brand of politics — especially in urban areas like Swansea and Llanelli, where Labour’s support has eroded.

Plaid Cymru has already signalled concern. Its campaign team has highlighted Zarah Sultana’s vote against devolving Crown Estate revenues to Wales — a move seen as undermining Welsh autonomy.

A challenge for Labour — and for devolution

Labour’s dominance in Wales has long relied on its ability to unite progressive voters. But internal polling suggests that fewer than half of Labour’s 2024 voters would back the party in a Senedd election today. Many are undecided — and Corbyn’s party could give them a new home.

The closed list system compounds the risk. Unlike first-past-the-post, where tactical voting can prevent vote-splitting, the new system offers no such safety net. If Corbyn’s party polls even 5–10%, it could cost Labour and Plaid multiple seats — handing Reform a path to power.

That’s not just a political headache. It’s a threat to the future of Welsh devolution. Reform UK has called for the abolition of the Senedd in the past, and its platform includes rolling back climate commitments and opposing Welsh-specific policies like free prescriptions and school meals.

What it means for South West Wales

In Swansea, Neath Port Talbot, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and Bridgend, the stakes are especially high. These areas will form part of the new larger constituencies, where six MSs will be elected per seat. That means parties need at least 13–15% of the vote to win a seat.

Reform UK is already polling above that threshold in many of these areas. If Corbyn’s party pulls votes from Labour and Plaid, Reform could win two or more seats per constituency — giving it a dominant voice in the Senedd.

For voters in South West Wales, the choice may come down to strategy. A vote for Corbyn’s party may feel principled — but under the new system, it could help elect Reform candidates who oppose the very policies Corbyn supports.

The road ahead

Corbyn’s party is still in its infancy. It hasn’t registered with the Electoral Commission, and its name, leadership structure and candidate list remain undecided. But with thousands signing up online and support growing on social media, it’s likely to be a factor in the 2026 election.

Whether it becomes a force for change or an accidental ally of Reform UK will depend on how voters respond — and whether progressive parties can find common ground before May.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

New polling shows Reform surge redrawing the political map in South West Wales
Reform UK overtakes Labour and Plaid in key constituencies across Swansea Bay region.

Plaid MS challenges LINK over Pontardawe banking hub snub
Sioned Williams MS calls for better cash access in Swansea Valley amid bank closures.

Laura Anne Jones defects to Reform UK ahead of Senedd election
Former Conservative MS joins Reform, becoming its first Senedd member and boosting its profile in Wales.

Senedd Election and Member Changes: Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about the new voting system, constituency boundaries and electoral reforms.

Decision on new Heol Goffa school expected this month

A long-awaited decision on a new special school for Llanelli could finally be made this month, with Carmarthenshire Council’s cabinet member for education, Cllr Glynog Davies, confirming he intends to bring forward a “definitive proposal” at a cabinet meeting on July 31.

The announcement follows years of uncertainty surrounding the future of Ysgol Heol Goffa, which serves pupils with additional learning needs and has long been described as overcrowded and unfit for purpose. Plans for a replacement school were first agreed in 2017 but were shelved last year due to rising costs — sparking protests, petitions and widespread community backlash.

Two options on the table

Following an independent review of specialist education in the Llanelli area, the council is now considering two revised options:

  • A 150-place school, alongside specialist centres for pupils with autistic spectrum conditions attached to mainstream schools
  • A 250-place standalone school, which would include provision for autistic pupils — and is the preferred option of Ysgol Heol Goffa’s governors and campaigners

Cost estimates range from £36.2 million to £58.1 million, with the Welsh Government expected to fund the majority of the capital investment.

Cllr Davies told full council on July 23 that “a lot of work” had now been done and that the proposal was “imminent” — though opposition councillors and parents say they’re still waiting for firm answers.

Political tensions and community frustration

Labour opposition leader Cllr Deryk Cundy pressed Cllr Davies for a clear timeline, saying parents deserved peace of mind after eight years of delays. Cllr Davies responded that the matter had to go before cabinet and reiterated his intention to make a formal proposal on July 31.

The exchange has reignited political tensions, with Plaid Cymru councillor Terry Davies accusing Labour of “generating headlines” rather than seeking genuine answers. In a Facebook post, he said:

“The announcement on Ysgol Heol Goffa has already been agreed with the school and its governors… If we’d pursued Labour’s previous proposal, the new school would already be facing serious capacity issues on opening day.”

But parents say the issue is far more urgent than party politics. Becki Gilroy, whose child attends Heol Goffa, responded:

“How dare you try and turn this around to the narrative that ‘Plaid are heroes for not building the original school as it was too small’. That’s a total insult to our intelligence. It was obvious from the start that the original plans didn’t meet current or future demand — but at least they would have provided a safe, accessible building. Right now, we’ve got water coming through the ceiling and doorways too narrow for wheelchairs.

Let’s be clear: the reason the council pulled the plug wasn’t capacity — it was cost. And now, after years of delay, we’re being told to wait even longer while they rework the plans. Meanwhile, children are stuck on waiting lists, denied the education they’re entitled to.

The David Davies review makes it crystal clear — unless a suitable school is built promptly, CCC is breaching its legal duties under the Equality Act. That includes failing to provide reasonable adjustments and accessible facilities for disabled pupils. This isn’t just a moral failure — it’s potentially unlawful discrimination.

And before anyone tries to politicise this, I’m not Plaid or Labour. I’m a parent of a disabled child who’s sick to the back teeth of being fobbed off. Our children deserve better — and the council needs to act before it’s too late.”

Campaigners demand action

The Ysgol Heol Goffa Action Committee, which has led protests and gathered thousands of petition signatures, says time is running out. In a statement earlier this year, the group wrote:

“Time is of the essence here; parents do not want to be waiting another five years plus for the new school. We agree that the school can be delivered in a more cost-effective manner, while also increasing pupil capacity to address the ever-growing need.”

The group has consistently backed the 250-place option, arguing that anything smaller would be outdated before it opens.

What happens next?

Cllr Davies is expected to present his proposal at the July 31 cabinet meeting, where councillors will review feasibility work and costings. If approved, the new school would replace the current Heol Goffa site, which has been described in council reports as “not fit for purpose” and facing significant accessibility and maintenance issues.

Related stories on Heol Goffa and specialist education in Llanelli

Concerns raised over future of Heol Goffa special school amid Reform UK surge and council delays
Published June 2024: Campaigners say political uncertainty and missed deadlines are putting disabled pupils at risk, as calls grow for urgent action on a new school.

Education cabinet member to propose new-build additional learning needs school
Published July 2024: Cllr Glynog Davies confirms plans to bring forward a new proposal for Heol Goffa, following feasibility work and community consultation.

Council says it’s looking at alternative scheme after axing Heol Goffa replacement school
Published March 2024: Carmarthenshire Council outlines new options after scrapping the previously approved school build due to rising costs.

MP says council decision to scrap new Heol Goffa school plans ‘wrong choice’
Published February 2024: Llanelli MP Dame Nia Griffith criticises the council’s decision to halt the new school project, calling it a setback for disabled children and their families.

Renewed calls for Newport M4 bypass rejected by Senedd

A proposed six-lane motorway bypass was scrapped in June 2019 by then-First Minister Mark Drakeford after over £150 million had already spent on preparatory work and planning. 

In the Senedd debate, Welsh Conservative, Sam Rowlands MS, described the M4 relief road as a golden opportunity, not only to ease congestion for motorists but also to boost the economy.

Mr Rowlands told the Senedd: “At every step of this journey, there’s been indecision and money wasted. At the end of it all, it’s been the Welsh people who’ve had to suffer as a result. And nothing has been done to ease congestion around Newport ever since.”

Labour meanwhile criticised the Conservatives for “nothing better than decrying an old and discredited plan”.

Jenny Rathbone MS said: “If you’re in a hole, stop digging, the reason being that it was completely pointless to spend £1.5bn-plus – £2bn in reality – on a scheme that would only cause more congestion two or three years later. That is not a good way to spend money.”

Former Labour transport minister Lee Waters MS, who also previously headed up cycling organisation SUSTRANS, said he backed the Burns commission recommendations for rail and bus improvements between Cardiff and Newport to reduce the M4 traffic.

Current Labour transport secretary, Ken Skates MS added that the plans for five new railway stations in South East Wales will enable thousands of extra train journeys a year, reducing congestion on the M4 by offering a sustainable alternative.

Plaid Cymru’s Peredur Owen Griffiths MS criticised the Conservatives for calling for a new road through a site of special scientific interest, saying an affordable and environmentally sustainable solution was needed instead.

Senedd members voted against the motion for the construction of the M4 bypass by 32 votes to 12. 

Reform projected to have most Senedd seats – but Plaid and Labour coalition most likely Government

A seat projection calculated by the public affairs company Cavendish Cymru has looked at the potential outcome of the new closed list proportional representation voting system.

The results show that Reform would have the largest number of seats, with 34.

Plaid Cymru would come second with 30 seats and Labour trailing in third with 21 seats.

The Conservatives are projected 8 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 2 and the Greens picking up their first seat.

While Reform would be the largest party, they would not have enough seats to form a majority – even if they were to form a coalition with the Conservatives.

The most likely outcome would be a Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour coalition – either a formal agreement or a confidence-and-supply deal. This would be dependent on Labour supporting Plaid’s Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister, however.

The results would see First Minister Eluned Morgan lose her seat, while former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price would return to the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid Cymru’s Sir Gaerfyrddin list.

Seat projections for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd seat that covers Swansea East, Neath Port Talbot and South Powys show Reform picking up two seats, with Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives with one each.

In the Gŵyr Abertawe constituency covering Gower and Swansea West, Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru would have two seats each.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, which includes Bridgend, would see Reform and Labour each with two seats, with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives taking one seat each.

Sir Gaerfyrddin covering Carmarthenshire would see Plaid Cymru and Reform take three seats each.

Calls to ‘build the M4 relief road’ six years after project cancelled

The South East Wales Transport Commission report found that the M4 near Newport ranked within the top 50 traffic hotspots in Europe, and was the 4th most congested stretch of urban motorway in the United Kingdom.

The proposed six-lane motorway, designed to bypass the heavily congested Brynglas Tunnels, was scrapped in June 2019 by then-First Minister Mark Drakeford nd , citing the £1.4 billion cost, the ecological importance of the Gwent Levels, and the Welsh Government’s commitment to reduce emissions from transport.

Over £150 million had already spent on preparatory work and planning before the project was abandoned. 

The Welsh Government proposed rail and bus improvements between Cardiff and Newport as a way of reducing traffic on the M4, creating six new stations at Newport Road, Cardiff Parkway, Newport West, Newport East, Llanwern and Magor – know as the Burns stations after the recommendations set out by the South East Wales Transport Commission Chaired by Lord Burns.

Last week, UK Government Chancellor, Rachel Reeves announced £445m for rail investment in Wales over the next 10 years to include the Burns Stations, but this has been criticised for being “measly”, with Welsh Liberal Democrat’s Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP saying “the indefensible decision to spread this measly amount of rail funding over 10 years not only robs Wales of what it is owed for past projects, but also guarantees that we will continue to fall behind in infrastructure spending, as major transport projects in England get the green light.”

In the Senedd this week, the Welsh Conservatives have tabled a motion calling on the Welsh Government to deliver an M4 relief road. The Welsh Labour Government and Plaid Cymru are currently set to vote against this motion.

Commenting ahead of the debate, Welsh Conservative Shadow Secretary for Finance, Transport and Infrastructure, Sam Rowlands MS, said: “Labour’s decision to scrap the M4 relief road wasted huge amounts of money, and was an attack on Welsh motorists.

“An M4 relief road would have alleviated traffic demands, whilst boosting our economy and investment into Wales.

“Welsh Conservatives will always be on the side of motorists, and that’s why we’re calling for the M4 relief road to be delivered.”

Plaid Cymru unveil Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd candidates ahead of 2026 Senedd election

The party is aiming to return a strong group of Senedd Members to represent Neath and the East of Swansea, the Swansea Valley and South Powys,  following a major opinion poll that puts Plaid Cymru on course to become the largest party in the Senedd – ahead of Reform, Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

The top four candidates selected for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd are:

  • Sioned Williams, Plaid Cymru’s current MS for South Wales West
  • Rebeca Phillips, NPT County Borough Councillor for Trebanos
  • Andrew Jenkins, Neath based community activist
  • Justin Horrell, Councillor for Abercraf on Ystradgynlais Town Council

The team are pledging to deliver the real change that people across Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd are crying out for.

Sioned Williams MS said: “Serving my home area for the last four years in the Senedd has been a huge honour, and I am delighted to have been selected as the lead candidate of a strong and dedicated Plaid Cymru team for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd.

“Plaid Cymru stands for a better Wales –  a fairer Wales, greener and more equal Wales –  and I am proud every day to be part of that mission. And while I think Plaid Cymru have very successfully held the Welsh Labour Government to account and advocated for our values and policies during this Senedd term, it is now time for us to lead the government, because there is so much inequality to challenge, so many services to defend, and too many communities, like ours, being left behind.

“We are a team who are rooted in our local communities, who will always put the needs of Wales first, fighting for the fairness and the real change that people in this area, who have already shown that they had enough of being ignored by the UK parties, say they want to see.”  

Rebeca Phillips, County Councillor for Trebanos said: “It has been an enormous privilege to have served Plaid Cymru and the residents of Trebanos for the last 13 years. I am excited to be part of a team of Plaid Cymru candidates for next year’s election and I am standing because I know we can make a real difference to the lives of the people of Wales.

“Since the creation of our Senedd, the Labour party has dominated and as a result our health service is on its knees, education standards are falling and our public services are suffering.

“We in Plaid Cymru know that we can, and must, do better. I hope that the people of Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will put their faith in us – the only credible party that will always put Wales first and ensure that our area is strongly represented in the Senedd.”

Community Liaison Officer, Andrew Jenkins said: “Whether waiting in line at the school gates or the bus stop, people tell me they have had enough of being ignored  or forgotten about by this Welsh Labour Government.

“Working within this fantastic team of community champions, I will take the message out across Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd that a Plaid Cymru Government will deliver the real change our communities want, need, and deserve.”

IT consultant and Abercraf Councillor Justin Horrell said: “Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is a vast and diverse constituency, but one united by a need for change. I look forward to campaigning as part of this strong team across the area to earn people’s support and bring Plaid Cymru’s message of fairness and ambition to every community.”

‘Deep disappointment’ over NatWest’s Neath branch closure

The Neath NatWest branch is known to be a hub for local banking services and is sometimes used for events like the NatWest Ospreys Cup semi-final draw. 

Sioned Williams MS, Plaid Cymru Member of Senedd for South Wales West, whose office is 500 feet from the NatWest Neath branch in the town centre, has expressed her “deep disappointment” in the closure decision.

Sioned Williams MS, Plaid Cymru Member of Senedd for South Wales West, said: “I have today written to NatWest to express my concern at the impact of their decision to close the Neath branch, and ask them to rethink their decision. 

“This is the latest in the ongoing trend of high-street banks closing their physical premises, cutting many individuals and businesses off from in-person banking services.

“High Street Banks are quick to advertise themselves as the heart of community, and happy to profit from that, but are quick to forget the responsibility that should lie with that position. I think it’s a scandal that banks which make huge profits are not obliged to provide services to the communities that have been their faithful customers for decades.

“The gap left behind by these high street banks are more than just the empty shop fronts. Ensuring that we retain the ability to transact with cash in our communities is a matter of fairness and inclusion, and it will be a blow to local businesses in Neath who use NatWest and are trying so hard to keep the town centre vibrant and flourishing and to the customers who want and need local in-person banking services.”

Cefin Campbell named as Plaid Cymru’s lead candidate for Carmarthenshire Senedd election

Plaid Cymru has confirmed its team of candidates for the new Sir Gaerfyrddin Senedd constituency ahead of the 2026 election.

The party is aiming to return a strong group of Senedd Members to represent Sir Gâr following a major opinion poll that puts Plaid Cymru on course to become the largest party in the Senedd – ahead of Reform, Labour, and the Conservatives.

Cefin Campbell, current Senedd Member for Mid and West Wales and Plaid’s spokesperson for education and champion for rural communities has been named as the party’s lead candidate.

Former member for Mid and West Wales, Nerys Evans has been selected in second place as part of party rules to ensure equality, mandating that candidates selected second must be a woman.

Nerys Evans authored the Prosiect Pawb report was published in May 2023 concluding that there was ”a culture of harassment, bullying and misogyny” within the party, that led to Adam Price stepping down as leader.

Former party leader and current Senedd Member for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Adam Price has been selected in third place. With Plaid likely to get only two seats in the six-seat constituency due to the new proportional representation voting system, this is likely to mean the end of Price’s Senedd tenure.

Fourth place on the party’s list has been given to Mari Arthur, a former parliamentary candidate for the party in Llanelli.

Cefin Campbell, said: “It’s an honour to once again stand for an area that means so much to me. I’ve spent my career fighting for fairer funding, stronger rural services, a stronger education system that leaves no one behind, and opportunities for our young people to thrive closer to home.

“This election is Wales’s opportunity to do something different – and better. A Plaid Cymru government would stand up to Westminster and deliver on the priorities that matter to people here and across our nation: health, wealth, and a fairer future for all.”

Nerys Evans, added: “People are telling us they want change. Many are disillusioned with Labour and are looking for a new home. 

“Plaid Cymru is the only credible pro-Wales option that will stand up to Reform and I’m proud to be part of a team that will take that message to every doorstep in Sir Gar – my home.

Adam Price said: “I would like to thank the members that showed me support during this process and congratulate Cefin on topping the list. 

“The task now is for our team of candidates to work together and ensure our best ever result in Sir Gar at the next Senedd elections.” 

Mari Arthur said: “I’m passionate about building a greener, fairer Wales and I’m proud to stand with this team of experienced and committed candidates to offer people real hope, real solutions, and a real alternative to the stale politics of the past.”

Education cabinet member to propose new-build additional learning needs school

The council had planned a new £17m building to provide a 132 place bilingual special school provision for children and young people aged between 3 and 20 to replace the current Heol Goffa special school, which the council had previously described as oversubscribed and “outdated”.

It then scrapped the plans describing them as “not financially viable” – a decision that triggered a huge public backlash and a 5,000 name petition handed into the council calling on them to reverse that decision.

Now, Cllr Glynog Davies, Carmarthenshire Council’s Cabinet Member for Education and Welsh Language has said he is to propose that the council’s cabinet consider one of two options for new additional learning needs provision in Llanelli – both of which would result in a larger school than the 120 pupil school that was rejected on cost grounds.

Cllr Davies said: “The original plan that many had pressed for would have resulted in a smaller school, which would have been full on day one.

“Following the independent report we commissioned by David Davies, a former ALN head, I’ll be recommending either a 150-capacity Heol Goffa school on one site, with primary and secondary specialist centres for a total of 115 pupils with Autistic Spectrum Condition (ASC) attached to mainstream schools, or a new ALN school for 250 pupils, to include provision for pupils with ASC.

“Despite huge financial pressures, we are determined to ensure the very best provision for ALN pupils in the Llanelli area, future-proofed for decades to come. I’m asking for more definite costings and, as always, we will engage with the Welsh Government to ensure funding for the scheme.”

Local Labour councillor, and founder member of an action group campaigning for a new school, Sean Greaney has criticised the way the Plaid-run administration has managed the issue.

Cllr Greaney said: “Plaid has given no guarantees. They have not said they have committed funding for the school. They have not set any timetable or deadline for the school to be built.

“The Welsh Government has committed to fund 75% of the cost of the new school, But after Plaid broke their seven-year promise to build the school, how do we know that their announcement is not just hollow words timed to coincide with the Lliedi by-election?

“We have to have a 100%, nailed on, guarantee that this new school will happen as soon as possible.

“Not only that, but the school, the action group, and most importantly, the parents want a school for 250 pupils, to ensure pupils with autistic spectrum conditions are not left out.

“They need an education specifically tailored to their needs and would benefit immensely from being part of a “super” Ysgol Heol Goffa where the existing expertise of the staff and governors would benefit them immensely, rather than being attached as an add-on to mainstream schools, which is the 150-pupil option.”

I suppose I could be very glad to see Starmer "get tough" on "integration and learning our language".

It is, indeed, long overdue that those moving into Wales stopped creating English-only ghettos for themselves, refusing to learn even the most basic, tokenistic words of Welsh.

Or, put another way, a very clear example of how the UK is now, more firmly than for a long time, seen by Westminster as 'England Only'.

Reform wants to make a big splash in next year's Senedd election.

If they came to power, do they intend to ban the Welsh flag from public buildings?

I also presume that, hating "speaking 'forrin' on trains", all candidates will speak Welsh fluently. Or will they ban Welsh?

Tricky...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 😉