It's not bad to be still getting these from the garden (glasshouse in the case of the tomatoes) at the end of October, half way up a mountain in mid Wales.
These went into my lunch today 😀

Cases, on the other hand, have shown a leap up today, to 1737, with three counties topping the 200, and RhCT regaining top spot again.
Once again Ceredigion brings up the rear, at just 3.

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Yesterday, I said that the death figures had been unexpectedly high the last 2 days. Today the number is right back down, roughly to where I would expect, given figures up to Tuesday, at 11. This brings the 7-day average down to 14.71. I still think we're likely to see this figure up in the high 20s before the effects of the lock-down kick in though, sadly.

With a 2-week time-to-double, which is more like what we have been seeing, we should max out at no more than 30.
The time-to-double of cases, which, being a larger figure, is perhaps more reliable, points to a doubling of just over 2 weeks (maybe as much as 18 days), which would strengthen that belief.
Rather than comment further today, here's a screenshot of the cases data. No change in top and bottom - Cardiff and Ceredigion respectively.

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With around 2 weeks to go until we see peak deaths following the lockdown, that would point to an average possibly as high as 60 per day (though we should see some tapering off in the few days before the peak).
However, the previous week's average was roughly static at around 7, so I am suspecting that quite a few (more than usual) of the cases reported the last 2 days have been carried forward from earlier.

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Whilst yesterday's shockingly high deaths figure was perhaps not entirely unpredictable (though the magnitude - 37 - surprised me), today's 21 is, to me at least, even more unexpectedly high. We expect a weekend rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday; we didn't see it Tuesday, so data coming in late can explain yesterday's figure. But not today's. This makes me very concerned that we locked down too late.
7-day average now 15.0, the highest since 10th May, and that's doubled in a week

There were 1414 cases reported today - the highest so far, with RhCT regaining top position with a shocking 276 cases.
276: RhCT
170: Cardiff
127: Swansea
119: Caerffili

10: Gwynedd
4: Penfro
3: Ceredigion

47: Powys (what nutter wanted them exempt from lockdown? - yes, it was a tory)

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Today's deaths show the highest figure reported in one day since 9th April. Doubtless there was an element of a backlog, probably from the weekend, but that does not alter the fact that it's a shocking figure.
The 7-day average deaths is now 13.0 - the highest since 11th May (and that is a fair comparison).
I hope those politicians who even today are questioning the strictness of the lockdown realise that their words will likely cost lives. I fear they may not care.

I never liked the Canon. It didn't play nice with Linux, unlike my first camera (a Fuji) and subsequent ones. It used a proprietary format and software to transfer photos.
Clearing out today, I found this unopened card inside the box. 16Mb. How did we cope?

37 deaths, 1414 new cases in official days We're back to April figures here.
Weekend rebounds in death figures often happen on a Wednesday rather than a Tuesday in my experience, but even so today's figure is shocking.
Who's still saying the lockdown is wrong? Get real.

Estimated figures for Ceredigion for the last week, from the Zoe app.

#FairyTaleTuesday #halloween #kisa #cats

One of my favorite fairy tales is Kisa the Cat which is an Icelandic folk tale, it was collected in Neuisländischen Volksmärchen. Later it was translated and published by Andrew Lang in The Brown Fairy Book in 1904.
Read Kisa The Cat on my blog

Arthur Rackham’s illustration of Kisa the Cat in Public Domain

The cases table:
203: Cardiff
189: RhCT
134: Swansea
85: Neath PT
62: Caerffili
60: Wrecsam
58: Bridgend

8: Penfro
7: Ceredigion

44: Carmarthenshire. That's high for the second day, suggesting yesterday's 72 was not a blip. That's quite a turnaround, as they (even with Llanelli's problems) had been doing not so badly until very recently.

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There were 1207 new cases today, taking the 7-day average up to 1093.
There were 7 deaths, with which the 7-day average noses down slightly to single figures again - 9.71. This is not the beginning of the end though. There will be another 2 weeks of climbing before we see the lockdown effect (unless other factors, unforeseen, are at work). With lowish numbers, we expect to see this sort of unevenness.

This looks an interesting and worthwhile initiative. The UK (London) government clearly don't have a clue, so we have to lead them.

Cases tables
199: Cardiff (claiming back the top spot)
143: RhCT
121: Swansea
77: Neath PT
76: Caerffili
72: Carmarthenshire (is that a backlog data dump? If not that's extraordinary)
63: Bridgend
50: Blaenau Gwent

10: Ceredigion
10: Gwynedd
10: Denbighshire
8: Môn
5: Pembrokeshire

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Today's official figures of cases show a significant jump (76) in the 7-day average, to 1084. The number of new cases reported today is 1158.
There were 6 deaths, bringing the 7-day average into double figures (10.14) for the first time since 1st June.
I don't often get political in my analyses of these figures, but any politician questioning the lockdown is risking lives and should be utterly ashamed of themselves.

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