Iaith/Language, piano, ffotograffiaeth, Ubuntu
Cases, on the other hand, have shown a leap up today, to 1737, with three counties topping the 200, and RhCT regaining top spot again.
Once again Ceredigion brings up the rear, at just 3.
Yesterday, I said that the death figures #Covid19Cymru had been unexpectedly high the last 2 days. Today the number is right back down, roughly to where I would expect, given figures up to Tuesday, at 11. This brings the 7-day average down to 14.71. I still think we're likely to see this figure up in the high 20s before the effects of the lock-down kick in though, sadly.
With a 2-week time-to-double, which is more like what we have been seeing, we should max out at no more than 30.
The time-to-double of cases, which, being a larger figure, is perhaps more reliable, points to a doubling of just over 2 weeks (maybe as much as 18 days), which would strengthen that belief.
Rather than comment further today, here's a screenshot of the cases data. No change in top and bottom - Cardiff and Ceredigion respectively.
With around 2 weeks to go until we see peak deaths following the lockdown, that would point to an average possibly as high as 60 per day (though we should see some tapering off in the few days before the peak).
However, the previous week's average was roughly static at around 7, so I am suspecting that quite a few (more than usual) of the cases reported the last 2 days have been carried forward from earlier.
Whilst yesterday's shockingly high deaths figure #Covid19Cymru was perhaps not entirely unpredictable (though the magnitude - 37 - surprised me), today's 21 is, to me at least, even more unexpectedly high. We expect a weekend rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday; we didn't see it Tuesday, so data coming in late can explain yesterday's figure. But not today's. This makes me very concerned that we locked down too late.
7-day average now 15.0, the highest since 10th May, and that's doubled in a week
There were 1414 cases reported today - the highest so far, with RhCT regaining top position with a shocking 276 cases.
47: Powys (what nutter wanted them exempt from lockdown? - yes, it was a tory)
Today's #Covid19Cymru deaths show the highest figure reported in one day since 9th April. Doubtless there was an element of a backlog, probably from the weekend, but that does not alter the fact that it's a shocking figure.
The 7-day average deaths is now 13.0 - the highest since 11th May (and that is a fair comparison).
I hope those politicians who even today are questioning the strictness of the lockdown realise that their words will likely cost lives. I fear they may not care.
Switzerland and Germany point to Wales' 'firebreak' lockdown as an example to follow. https://nation.cymru/news/switzerland-and-germany-point-to-wales-firebreak-lockdown-as-an-example-to-follow/
37 deaths, 1414 new cases in #Covid19Cymru official days We're back to April figures here.
Weekend rebounds in death figures often happen on a Wednesday rather than a Tuesday in my experience, but even so today's figure is shocking.
Who's still saying the lockdown is wrong? Get real.
Estimated #Covid19Cymru figures for Ceredigion for the last week, from the Zoe app.
#FairyTaleTuesday #halloween #kisa #cats
One of my favorite fairy tales is Kisa the Cat which is an Icelandic folk tale, it was collected in Neuisländischen Volksmärchen. Later it was translated and published by Andrew Lang in The Brown Fairy Book in 1904.
Read Kisa The Cat on my blog
Arthur Rackham’s illustration of Kisa the Cat in Public Domain
The cases table:
85: Neath PT
44: Carmarthenshire. That's high for the second day, suggesting yesterday's 72 was not a blip. That's quite a turnaround, as they (even with Llanelli's problems) had been doing not so badly until very recently.
There were 1207 new #Covid19Cymru cases today, taking the 7-day average up to 1093.
There were 7 deaths, with which the 7-day average noses down slightly to single figures again - 9.71. This is not the beginning of the end though. There will be another 2 weeks of climbing before we see the lockdown effect (unless other factors, unforeseen, are at work). With lowish numbers, we expect to see this sort of unevenness.
This looks an interesting and worthwhile initiative. The UK (London) government clearly don't have a clue, so we have to lead them.
199: Cardiff (claiming back the top spot)
77: Neath PT
72: Carmarthenshire (is that a backlog data dump? If not that's extraordinary)
50: Blaenau Gwent
Today's #Covid19Cymru official figures of cases show a significant jump (76) in the 7-day average, to 1084. The number of new cases reported today is 1158.
There were 6 deaths, bringing the 7-day average into double figures (10.14) for the first time since 1st June.
I don't often get political in my analyses of these figures, but any politician questioning the lockdown is risking lives and should be utterly ashamed of themselves.
Iaith/Language, piano, ffotograffiaeth, Ubuntu
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