AngharadHafod @AngharadHafod@toot.wales

#Ceredigion has 26 new cases. This is up. The (very estimated) R for the county hovers just above 1.
7-day average: 17.71 - UP 0.86
Watch https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html for where in the county these cases are (at present, still showing yesterday's data).
3/3

R (estimate): 0.85 - DOWN 0.04
That's again excellent, as it suggests the fall in cases is accelerating. The number of tests coming back positive is also amongst the lowest of the last month, at 16.9%

There were 54 deaths (same as yesterday). We've seen nothing more than a slight fall over the past few days, but hopefully that fall will accelerate as the lower case numbers eventually translate to fewer deaths.
7-day average: 44.86 - DOWN 0.29
2/3

Here are today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases still trending down. R falls again. Deaths still high.
There were 1808 cases reported today. Friday tends to be the highest of the week, so the fact that it is up on yesterday is not a concern. It's significantly down on a week ago.
7-day average: 1735 - DOWN 97
1/3

Dwy gath gerddorol.
Two musical cats.

#Ceredigion has 23 new cases. Although the average drops a little, I am still a bit disappointed in this. The trends across the week that we see in larger numbers (the national figures) have lesser relevance with smaller numbers (the data are noisier).

Having said that, Wednesday has been the peak day for Ceredigion for the last 3 weeks, so hopefully that's the explanation.
7-day average: 17.43 - DOWN 0.43
4/4

Today's deaths (66) represents the rebound we normally see after the weekend (Tuesday's figures mostly represent Sunday deaths). So for the 3rd day running there's a decrease in the average; not a big one, but hopefully the peak has passed.
7-day average: 46.43 - DOWN 1.43
3/4

I'm not prepared to give my usual estimated R today, since the calculation involves an estimate of cases (as opposed to actual data) on one day over the new year, and an estimate based on an estimate is one step too far. But signs are good that it has fallen and is around 0.9.
2/4

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines: Wednesday 13th January
Cases still trending down. Deaths showing signs that they're passed the peak (though it's too early to say for sure). R appears to be going down.

It's really looking good for cases: bearing in mind numbers tend to increase through the week, today's 1533, although higher than yesterday, still continues the downward trend - it's still the second lowest reliable figure since 4th December.
7-day average: 1842 - DOWN 101
1/4

There were 16 deaths reported today. This is improbably low, and I expect a rebound tomorrow and/or Thursday, as we saw last week.
7-day average: 47.86 - DOWN 0.14

#Ceredigion has 17 new cases, which takes the county's average up a little, and puts the estimated (very approximate) R just a fraction over 1 (the only bad news of the day - at least, in what I'm reporting on).
7-day average: 17.86 - UP 0.86
3/3

R (estimate): 0.94 - DOWN 0.025
This takes R back to where it was for most of week 1 2021. R falling is excellent; it means cases are falling faster. But whilst it is still close to 1, we can't let up our guard, especially as we know the new variant could push it up again.

Test positivity is 17.6% - still fairly low compared with recent weeks (that's a good sign too).
2/3

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases down. R down. Deaths down.
In short, today is fairly good news. The downward trend looks well established. There's still no room for wiggle though.

Today's new cases figure of 1332 is the lowest (excluding days with apparent or known reporting issues) since the end of Nov. It is in line with the trend, +possibly some settling after the new year, so there is no reason to doubt its validity.
7-day average: 1943 - DOWN 105
(table from PHW web site)
1/3

There were 17 deaths reported. Although Monday nearly always sees lower figures than later in the week, this is down on last Monday (by 8).
7-day average: 48.0 - DOWN 1.14

Ceredigion has 15 new cases (the lowest in Cymru today). That's the same as last Monday, so the average remains unchanged. The extremely approximate estimated R is at a nice round 0.875 (slightly down).
7-day average: 17.0 - UNCHANGED.
2/2

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases edge down again, R unchanged. Deaths slightly down.
Mostly good news, but R still uncomfortably close to 1.

There were 1793 new cases reported today; down 105 on last Monday, so the averages head in the right direction.
7-day average: 2048 - DOWN 15

R (estimate): 0.975 - UNCHANGED
As yesterday, the percentage of tests with a positive result is again lower today (16.5%) than we've been used to seeing for the last month or so, which is a very good sign.
1/2

#Ceredigion has 11 new cases: that brings the average down a little, and gives a (very approximate - don't use this for anything serious) R of 0.91 for the county.
7-day average: 17.0 - DOWN 0.57 over 2 days
/6 (ends)

I think the Welsh government understands this, and although I disagreed factually with their statement on Friday, the intent is correct, as is the face-to-face closing of schools and universities - at least for the timebeing.

There were 45 new deaths recorded today. That's very high for a Sunday, taking the 7-day average to a record high. This should be peaking around now, as cases have been coming down since just before Christmas.
7-day average: 49.14 - UP 7.29 over 2 days
/5

My biggest fear, if R does rise above 1 again, is that we have no tool beyond what we are doing already (almost complete lockdown) to get it back down under 1, except time, the vaccine, and herd immunity (be that from vaccine or infection). The speed of vaccine rollout becomes crucial at this point; it really is a race against time.
/4

Time will tell, but it seems possible to me that R is going to be above 1 in Cymru before long, and we'll see cases rising again.

There is, however, one other notable feature about today's figures: the positivity rate is only 15.8%. Yesterday was the second lowest in the last fortnight, at 19.5%. This is remarkably low, and therefore good news. because it suggests that the slight edging up of the average is due to more tests being carried out, thus detecting more positives.
/3

The 1660 cases reported today is the lowest for over a month. Such a fall is, however, expected, given that R has been around or under 1 now for 3 weeks. Despite this, the 7-day average is slightly up, and that's a little concerning.
7-day average: 2063 - UP 3 over 2 days
R (estimate): 0.975 - UP 0.032 over 2 days
This, coupled with a very slightly increased average, suggests to me that we are bottoming out now, as the new strain gains ground.
/2