Dim y tywydd o'n ni'n disgwyl heddiw.
Not the weather we expected today.

"How quaint, we've got a little house in Wales. Never mind that the peasants can't afford to stay in their own locality."

Action shot - 2 barcud uwchben, yn ymosod â'i gilydd, y bore 'ma.
2 red kites overhead, attacking each other, this morning.

Anyone who knows what FUD is, and has heard of the Halloween Documents, was never under any illusions about the "Good Billionaire".

Penblwydd hapus Taliesin ac Idris, yn flwydd oed heddiw.
One year old today.

This is what happens inside a fence post as the weather hollows it out over time. Who knew?

Dyma machlud yr haul gyda'r lleuad llawn yn codi neithiwr ym Mhontrhydygroes
Here's yesterday evening's sunset with the full moon rising in

Just upgraded my server. New 2TB SSD. Ubuntu 20.04 server, replacing 16.04 (just in time).
Needed Gnuplot for on-the-fly graph generation on my web server. So dependencies demanded a whole installation of X (why?)
Restarted, all appeared fine. Went away for a bit, came back, and couldn't access the server. Did sshd fail? No. The whole server had suspended itself due to inactivity.
This is a server ffs!!!
Other than that though, it was a fairly painless upgrade.

Happy Pi Day.
Vi Hart in particularly reflective and musical mood at 2021-3-14:1.59 (and 26 seconds?).


For the fourth day out of the last 6, records zero cases, bringing the average number of cases per day (7-day average) down to 0.71.
In next place, on 2 cases, are Mynwy, Pen-Y-Bont-a.O, Caerfyrddin, Penfro.

Merthyr (16), Môn (13) and Gwynedd (12) are today's hot spots.

Lowri Williams' map at portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.htm is good viewing today, showing large areas of Cymru as completely free of cases.

[Data table screenshot: credit Public Health Wales public.tableau.com/profile/pub]


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As numbers get lower, small outbreaks can have a more noticeable effect on the trends, and we've certainly been seeing that in the estimated R over recent weeks. It's still right to include them of course; they are all part of the story.

There were 12 deaths recorded today. That's the same as last Friday, and it's disappointing. But with very low numbers now coming through, noise makes trends appear less consistent.
7-day average: 8.29 - UNCHANGED


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Positivity is at a record post peak low of 3.0%. It's also very interesting to look at both the by-sample-date and by-publication-date graphs, and see how smooth and straight the 7-day average line appears. That's a very good sign.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - DOWN 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.89 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 2 is based on data from the 11 days to 9/3 and includes an assumption that there is still a little data to come in for this period.

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