Just upgraded my server. New 2TB SSD. Ubuntu 20.04 server, replacing 16.04 (just in time).
Needed Gnuplot for on-the-fly graph generation on my web server. So dependencies demanded a whole installation of X (why?)
Restarted, all appeared fine. Went away for a bit, came back, and couldn't access the server. Did sshd fail? No. The whole server had suspended itself due to inactivity.
This is a server ffs!!!
Other than that though, it was a fairly painless upgrade.

Happy Pi Day.
Vi Hart in particularly reflective and musical mood at 2021-3-14:1.59 (and 26 seconds?).


For the fourth day out of the last 6, records zero cases, bringing the average number of cases per day (7-day average) down to 0.71.
In next place, on 2 cases, are Mynwy, Pen-Y-Bont-a.O, Caerfyrddin, Penfro.

Merthyr (16), Môn (13) and Gwynedd (12) are today's hot spots.

Lowri Williams' map at portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.htm is good viewing today, showing large areas of Cymru as completely free of cases.

[Data table screenshot: credit Public Health Wales public.tableau.com/profile/pub]


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As numbers get lower, small outbreaks can have a more noticeable effect on the trends, and we've certainly been seeing that in the estimated R over recent weeks. It's still right to include them of course; they are all part of the story.

There were 12 deaths recorded today. That's the same as last Friday, and it's disappointing. But with very low numbers now coming through, noise makes trends appear less consistent.
7-day average: 8.29 - UNCHANGED


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Positivity is at a record post peak low of 3.0%. It's also very interesting to look at both the by-sample-date and by-publication-date graphs, and see how smooth and straight the 7-day average line appears. That's a very good sign.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - DOWN 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.89 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 2 is based on data from the 11 days to 9/3 and includes an assumption that there is still a little data to come in for this period.

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We had a very strange anomaly in the data this past week; that is, tests with a sample date of 8th March (Monday). This is much higher than we would have expected, given the data around it (now 258 and could yet rise further - cf 244 1 week earlier). This is I think what threw out some of the trends this week.

7-day average: 184 - DOWN 6

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Today's headlines:
Cases trending down still. Trend in deaths looks stalled again. Positivity a record low. Indicators for R slightly improved.

There were 190 cases reported today. Friday often tends to have higher figures than the rest of the week, but this week has been different. I can't see that this is because of reporting issues; by-sample-date data seems to be coming in at the usual speed.

has 2 cases. That's 1 more than in the previous 4 days. The sample dates for these two were Monday 8th March. They were in Borth&Bontgoch and Aberystwyth South - see portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.htm.

Bro Morgannwg recorded just 1 case, with Mynwy and Dinbych also on 2.

Merthyr Tudful (26) seems to be having another outbreak. This long after the start of their first big outbreak, and with different strains around, I'd be very interested to know how many of these are second infections.

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Weekend rebounds from deaths generally happen on Wednesdays and Thursdays. Last week, most were on Wednesday. This week is Thursday's turn. Taking that into account, a slight rise today after a greater fall yesterday is not such bad news.
7-day average: 8.29 - UP 0.29

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Positivity is 3.3%, equalling the lowest post-peak, which was 4 days ago.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.94 - UP 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.91 - UP 0.03

There was an error in my spreadsheet for the calculation of estimate 2 yesterday. Yesterday's estimate should have been 0.88. But as is clear, R has risen on both estimates today. Estimate 2 is based on data from the 11 days to 8th March, and could rise further as more data come in.

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- and that will almost certainly rise further in the next day or two. This is odd. And the most worrying thing is that the fall in 7-day average of sample-date data is showing signs of stalling. Time will tell.

Bear in mind that the later the figure on the graph attached to this toot, the more likely it is to go up as more data come in over the next few days.

Today has a more normal amount of cases from 2 days ago (in the 90s).

7-day average: 190 - DOWN 10

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Today's headlines:
Cases trend down again, but I have some concern. The post-weekend rebound in deaths happened today, so deaths are up a little.

There were 195 cases recorded today. That's quite good; Thursdays are usually one of the higher days. However, my explanation for yesterday's high figure (more coming through from 2 days ago than usual), whilst true, was because there were actually more cases from Tuesday than the previous Tuesday (245, cf 244)

has recorded zero cases for the second day in succession, and the third day from the last four.
The other top counties are Mynwy and Torfaen, both on 3.
See Lowri Williams' superb site portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.htm for a local breakdown.

[Screenshot of data table, credit PHW public.tableau.com/profile/pub]


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There were 6 deaths, and that on a Wednesday, on which we're used to seeing a post-weekend rebound. It seems to me that this is a sign of the vaccine doing its job and protecting those more vulnerable to death from Covid.
7-day average: 8.0 - DOWN 0.86

We must however remember that the age group who are most vulnerable to has not yet been vaccinated (30s-50s, mainly previously fit and healthy people). This is a terrible condition for many and a huge cost to society.


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There's also 8 cases from 28/2 - 2/3. So, this looks like good work on the part of PHW, not just catching up, but also turning results around quicker.
7-day average: 200 - UP 2.

Positivity is 4.7%, down from 5.3% last Wednesday.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - UP 0.02
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.92 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 1 is up because of the larger number of cases reported today. But both are a bit too close to 1 for my liking (at which point, cases start to rise).

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Today's headlines:
For the first time in a while, the 7-day cases average goes up. But don't panic (I have an explanation). Deaths down. Ceredigion records 0 cases for the 3rd day out of 4.

There were 225 cases recorded today. That's more than expected and significantly up on last Wednesday's 208. But looking at the sample dates shows that significantly more tests from 2 days ago have come through (163) than is usual (cf yesterday 91).

However, because that weekend saw the higher figure on Monday, the average goes up today.
7-day average: 8.86 - UP 0.29

has zero cases for the second day in three, and the 4th in a fortnight.
Other counties of note:
2: Torfaen, Merthyr Tudful & Penfro
3: Mynwy
4: Powys
A more detailed breakdown can be seen here: portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.htm

[Data table image credit PHW web site public.tableau.com/profile/pub]


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As the vaccine rollout proceeds, it will have more and more room for manoeuvre, but those vaccinated so far are mainly those who would not have a significant impact on the R rate anyway. We're just getting into the ones that will be significant for R now.

There were 3 deaths reported today. That gives a weekend total of 3 (Monday and Tuesday being weekend figures, and there were no deaths reported yesterday). That is one down on the previous weekend, which recorded 4.


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