Parod am y rygbi penwythnos yma....ready for the rugby this weekend 🍺🏉 ....Diolch I ⁦‪@tomosandlilford‬⁩

Anyone got a link to the Recent Plaid document on Holiday Homes? But lazy of me I know, but I’m tired after a hard day of keeping the wheels of business turning in sunny PT! 😯

With a 2-week time-to-double, which is more like what we have been seeing, we should max out at no more than 30.
The time-to-double of cases, which, being a larger figure, is perhaps more reliable, points to a doubling of just over 2 weeks (maybe as much as 18 days), which would strengthen that belief.
Rather than comment further today, here's a screenshot of the cases data. No change in top and bottom - Cardiff and Ceredigion respectively.
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With around 2 weeks to go until we see peak deaths following the lockdown, that would point to an average possibly as high as 60 per day (though we should see some tapering off in the few days before the peak).
However, the previous week's average was roughly static at around 7, so I am suspecting that quite a few (more than usual) of the cases reported the last 2 days have been carried forward from earlier.
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Whilst yesterday's shockingly high deaths figure was perhaps not entirely unpredictable (though the magnitude - 37 - surprised me), today's 21 is, to me at least, even more unexpectedly high. We expect a weekend rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday; we didn't see it Tuesday, so data coming in late can explain yesterday's figure. But not today's. This makes me very concerned that we locked down too late.
7-day average now 15.0, the highest since 10th May, and that's doubled in a week
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Dyma hoff ganwr / ysgrifennwr caneuon arall
Another favourite singer/songwriter
Listen to Gad Iddi Fynd by Steve Eaves on
soundcloud.app.goo.gl/uyEu


37 deaths, 1414 new cases in official days We're back to April figures here.
Weekend rebounds in death figures often happen on a Wednesday rather than a Tuesday in my experience, but even so today's figure is shocking.
Who's still saying the lockdown is wrong? Get real.

The cases table:
>50
203: Cardiff
189: RhCT
134: Swansea
85: Neath PT
62: Caerffili
60: Wrecsam
58: Bridgend

<10
8: Penfro
7: Ceredigion

Notable:
44: Carmarthenshire. That's high for the second day, suggesting yesterday's 72 was not a blip. That's quite a turnaround, as they (even with Llanelli's problems) had been doing not so badly until very recently.

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There were 1207 new cases today, taking the 7-day average up to 1093.
There were 7 deaths, with which the 7-day average noses down slightly to single figures again - 9.71. This is not the beginning of the end though. There will be another 2 weeks of climbing before we see the lockdown effect (unless other factors, unforeseen, are at work). With lowish numbers, we expect to see this sort of unevenness.
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Love this guy. Sings in both Cymraeg a Saesneg

Al Lewis Band - SoundCloud Listen to Al Lewis Band, a playlist by Annie Moore on
soundcloud.app.goo.gl/J66k

Some Abstract Art from Err Indoors!
Two abstract paintings. No thought process just let the paint do its thing. Turns out Ive painted what looks like aberavon beach and Steelworks view looking over from kenfig pool!

Great Welsh Band...used to love these back in the 90's when living in Cardiff, in the heady days of "Cool Cymru"
Rumours and Curses by @melysmusic open.spotify.com/album/1nosGuI

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