The British Isles after a 100 m rise in sea levels:
The Welshman on the front line of New York's battle with COVID-19 - Nation.Cymru
We've now seen the %age increase in deaths falling for four consecutive days (31.5%, 24.2%, 23.4%, 19.6%, 14.4%), and so this is looking like a trend. It suggests that we really might be approaching the peak. However, it does not suggest necessarily that we have peaked in deaths per day just yet. 2/4
The #Covid19UK figures for deaths today are again encouraging. As yesterday, they show a reduction of the rate of increase in deaths (d²y/dx²), and indeed today they show a reduction in the actual number of deaths per day (dy/dx), at 619 (from 708 yesterday). The total deaths in the UK is now recorded as 4932. 1/4
Today's total #Covid19Cymru deaths - 166 - is therefore significantly below what the projection had suggested.
The projection assumes the average rate of increase over the past three days will continue, and in earlier stages this is a reasonable assumption. At roughly 18 days (mean time infection-death) after people started taking measures (lockdown, social distancing, home working) the number will deviate from that curve.
The #Covid19Cymru figures for deaths today are very encouraging indeed. They show only 12 deaths; the lowest since 31st March, and the lowest one I think we could describe as (even vaguely) reliable since 29th March.
This suggests that yesterday's 13 was a blip, and that we really might be approaching (or even past) the peak. However, 2 days is not sufficient for confidence. For that we will need another day or two of lower figures.
Don't believe the COVID-19 Models.
That's not what they are for.
An interesting read.
Any thoughts @AngharadHafod ?
Here are my #Covid19Cymru charts for today.
Yesterday's projection forecast a total of 145 deaths to today (up 28). The actual number was 141 (up 24).
#Brexit (remember that?) - the continuing delusion.
Another amazing blog post from Prof. Chris Grey.
Tons of free resources for mental health and wellbeing: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wX0GKpTv7uzfRSjrtEV7w9H7nGFrqAGSKq8ZENWmwqM/edit #COVID #coronavirus
We're still tracking ahead of Italy (+14 days) on daily number of deaths (first derivative) AND daily increase in deaths (second derivative). And even the third derivative (increase in increase in deaths) is still in dodgy territory. That, to a statistician, is very worrying.
Today's #Covid19UK figures are released. My projection did remarkably well, predicting 2926 deaths (total) for today. The actual number is 2921.
To those people who STILL doubt that we are following the Italy curve, I say: look at the figures.
I see no way off this curve for at least a week. We will pass 10,000 deaths within the next week, and possibly as soon as 5 days' time.
This #poll would appreciate 1,093 votes, please!
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