Public Health Wales have admitted today that many #Covid19Cymru cases have not been recorded since 9th December. 11468 cases were recorded today. This is quite believable. Here I've put what I think are close to likely true figures for each day, alongside the recorded figures.
Reasonable?
1/4
Because this gives me something sensible to work with, with correct totals over time, and day figures which are probably close to the truth, I can plug those in to my figures instead of the (known) false ones, and get graphs which are probably not too far out.
Except - HUGE disclaimer - R is very dependent on recent data, and its order, so I wouldn't place too much trust in this right now. But this has produced quite a believable graph.
2/4
52 new deaths were recorded today, which is strange, because the total given means that there were 30 yesterday (did I miss a release of death figures yesterday?). The deaths figure is however significant; the average (which is probably about right) is now over 30 (30.67). I feared this would happen, and actually it happened about when I predicted, given the low in cases a few weeks ago after the half term lockdown.
3/4
#Ceredigion sees 52 new cases, which given that the national figure is at least 4 times what we would have expected for today, is not bad (52/4=13). But this is all very speculative; we'll need to wait a few days before we can spot trends with any confidence again.
4/4