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Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
The dramatic increase in the rate of fall of cases seen the last 2 days seems to be maintained, so it really looks like there's been a turnaround.
The deaths trend creeps up slightly.
247 cases is low for a Sunday. The next lowest of recent times was last Sunday, at 336. Given that this dramatic fall has been observed for 3 consecutive days, I think we can now assume it's real (unless something's badly wrong at PHW).
7-day average: 277 - DOWN 12
1/5
R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.81 - UP 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.88-0.94
This is a remarkably sudden turnaround, from an R of 0.95 (and fairly steady around that figure) to 0.81 today.
Although this is slightly up on yesterday, it serves more as confirmation that this is real, rather than being of concern.
For estimate 2, I have given a range. That's because the figures are always subject to change, with data coming in from previous days.
2/5
Normally, I would be trusting the 0.94 figure, which comes from the same spreadsheet row as yesterday's 0.94 estimate. However, that would ignore the equivalent row for today's data only on the grounds that it looks too low to me. Given the drop we're seeing in publication date data, it's likely that 0.88 is closer. The 0.88 figure is calculated on sample date data from the 11 days to 23rd.
Positivity is 5.1%, which although up on yesterday's 4.1% is still the 2nd lowest of recent times.
3/5
Deaths creep up today, unexpectedly. This is unlikely to be anything to be concerned about for the longer term, given what is happening with cases. Though it's a bit odd, because it's not just one day, so could be more than just noise.
7-day average: 14.71 - UP 1.14
4/5
#Ceredigion reports 4 new cases, which these days is a high figure for the county. These are:
1: Aberystwyth N
1: Aberystwyth S
1: Rheidol, Ystwyth & Caron
1: Lampeter & Llanfihangel Ystrad
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html
7-day average: 2.43 - UP 0.43
Topping the table today are:
2: Blaenau Gwent
2: Penfro
3: Mynwy
As well as the above, a number of others beat Ceredigion per capita today: Abertawe, Caerdydd, Dinbych, Caerfyrddin, Rhondda, Pen-Y-Bont, Bro Morgannwg.
[Screenshot: PHW web site]
5/5
