Okay, I spent some time going through some of my MOVEit logs and I think I see at least part of what's going on with the increase in MOVEit scans noted by @greynoise.
One thing I have noticed is a group of GCP hosts performing high volume scans against the MOVEit servers every seven days, but not against adjacent servers or other servers for the same orgs. This kind of makes it look targeted but the scans are generic kitchen sink vuln scans.
I did notice that some of these and other scanners I've seen over the past few months now have a couple requests that appear to be testing for CVE-2023-34362 mixed in to their other requests. It's like they loaded their automated scanners with updated payload lists.
There are a lot of Cloudflare and AWS IPs in the logs, as indicated by GreyNoise in their blog post. There are not a lot of unique Google IPs but I'm seeing a ton of noise from the ones I do see. But only every seven days. The servers I have logs for all block Tencent so I can't confirm the activity from their infrastructure.
I have also put my juicy eyes on every single GET and POST sent to these MOVEit Transfer servers for the past 60 days and I do not see any payloads that appear to be new or novel. That's not to say there isn't anything new going on, but I'm now comfortable with treating MOVEit servers with the same concern as before the GreyNoise blog post as I don't see any indication of impending action. There may be some WAF or rate limit or geolocation filter testing going on that's disguised as generic scans, but I have no evidence to suggest that's the case.
Caveat: I have relatively low visibility into what's going on at scale like GreyNoise does so take this with a grain of salt and if it's of interest, go confirm it yourself. This is intended to be informational, not actionable.