Chewing through some NYC numbers, something for @AngharadHafod to compare notes
@jaz Interesting. It looks promising on the surface. Deaths will lag behind ICU and hospital admissions (those that die were admitted earlier). So if this isn't a weekend effect, you might be coming out of the woods.
Ask yourselves what you were doing 2 to 3 weeks ago. That's the main influence on what the figures today look like.
@jaz No I'm not in public health. I have a background in bioinformatics though (data analysis, etc). I'm not a biologist, but obviously as I worked closely with biologists for years, some of it rubbed off on me.
@AngharadHafod Well, as someone who is in the thick of it on the public health side in New York, it's great to see your charts and commentary, please keep it coming 😃
@AngharadHafod yep, watching the data I spent most of the weekend worried it was a calendar blip, weekend effect, and monday numbers start to bear that out, we're still good for capacity in general but certain hospitals overwhelmed, we have ~3,000 new beds we can use - but NYC lockdown was in stages so I'm hoping this steps down relative to each portion of the lockdown 10-14 days out. peak capacity will be in a few days most likely (are you in public health?)