Today's #Covid19UK death figures may have caused some alarm. However, I don't think it is cause for dismay. As has been observed by a number of people (and denied by others - mostly not statisticians?), we have been following Italy's curve for some time.
Italy's highest daily deaths figure of 919 occurred on 27th March, i.e. 12 days ago. We're tracking at Italy+14. The data are noisy (they go up and down); we've had a constant decrease in the % increase of deaths per day, and this is crucial
I've just been told that there is a story on the BBC that we won't peak for another week and a half.
They should have been reading my analysis 🙂
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